Ripeness and Hot Spots in Time: Possible Futures in Micro Place-Based Policing

Place-based policing is known to help decrease crimes. Specific areas have properties that make them more attractive for specific types of crimes. Crime analysis seems to have moved from a more generalized mapping of hot spots to a more finely-grained map. The term “Micro” has become common in geospatial studies.

In policing, predictive analytics uses micro-level analysis, which allows crime analysts to make more mathematically sophisticated analyses of place and crime. Using predictive analytics, one can identify areas where increased police patrol is required to deter criminal activity.

At the September 2014 IACA, Training Conference I demonstrated a prototype technique to identify grid squares, wherein specific crime types were occurring at unusual levels. At the end of that demonstration, I proposed several phenomena for future study. The purpose of this paper is to further explain and identify methods to isolate these phenomena.

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